美国天然气期货价格下滑

据天然气加工网站3月27日消息 周五，美国天然气期货价格下跌3%，因预计两周内天气将转暖，取暖需求将减少低于此前预期。

纽约商品交易所4月份交割的天然气期货价格在美国东部时间上午8点53分（格林尼治标准时间12：53）下跌2.4美分，至1.613美元/每百万英热单位，跌幅1.5%。周一，该合约收于1.602美元/每百万英热单位，为1995年9月以来的最低水平。5月份期货价格下跌约1.8%，至1.66美元/每百万英热单位。

本周期货价格上涨约1%，上周下跌约14%。放眼未来，2020年晚些时候和2021年的价格大多将上涨，因为预期随着经济增长的恢复，需求将再次开始上升，因为在疫情减缓后，各国政府将放松旅行限制。

11月的期货溢价高于10月，达到2010年8月以来的最高水平，而2021年的期货溢价则在至少一年内首次超过2025年。甚至在疫情开始削减全球经济增长和能源需求之前，天然气的交易量就已经接近多年来的最低水平，因为创纪录的产量和数月的温和天气使得公用事业公司能够储存更多的天然气，这使得今年冬天不太可能出现燃料短缺和价格飙升的情况。

由于预计下周天气将转暖，4月初将再次降温，数据提供商Refinitiv预计，美国48个州（包括出口）的天然气需求将从本周的平均1051亿立方英尺/天下滑至下周的982亿立方英尺/天，然后在两周内升至1019亿立方英尺/天。这低于Refinitiv周四预测的本周1053亿立方英尺/天和下周的995亿立方英尺/天。根据Refinitiv的数据，流向美国液化天然气出口工厂的天然气量从周三的91亿立方英尺/天降至周四的90亿立方英尺/天。相比之下，上周的平均值为81亿立方英尺/天，1月31日的日最高值为95亿立方英尺/天。

吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures ease with oil price slide, lower demand next week

U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday with a 3% decline in oil prices and on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected despite an outlook calling for cooler weather and more heating demand in two weeks.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to $1.613 per million British thermal units at 8:53 a.m. EDT (1253 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at $1.602, its lowest since September 1995. May futures, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 1.8% at $1.66 per mmBtu.

For the week, the front-month was up about 1% after falling about 14% last week. Looking ahead, prices later in 2020 and 2021 were mostly trading higher on expectations demand will start to rise again with the return of economic growth as governments loosen travel restrictions after the coronavirus spread slows.

The premium of futures for November over October rose to its highest since August 2010, while calendar 2021 swung to a premium over calendar 2025 for the first time in at least a year. Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and demand for energy, gas was already trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely this winter.

With the weather expected to warm next week before cooling again in early April, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from an average of 105.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 98.2 bcfd next week before rising to 101.9 bcfd in two weeks. That is lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Thursday of 105.3 bcfd this week and 99.5 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants eased to 9.0 bcfd on Thursday from 9.1 bcfd on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31.