澳大利亚LNG出口额将下降

据世界天然气网站3月23日消息 因与石油相关的合同价格下降，预计2019-20年澳大利亚液化天然气出口额将下降至490亿美元，2020-21年将进一步回落至440亿美元。

澳大利亚首席经济学家办公室在其资源和能源季度报告中表示，2024-2025年的展望期内，澳大利亚的液化天然气出口收入预计将保持在440-470亿美元的区间。

西北大陆架和达尔文项目天然气产量下降的影响预计将被2021-2023年间石油相关合同价格的小幅上涨以及展望期最后一年Pluto项目扩张的加速所抵消。

澳大利亚2018-19年的液化天然气实际出口额为510亿美元，高于2017-18年的320亿美元。与2017-18年相比，石油价格的回升以及出口量的增长，尤其是Ichthys和Wheatstone（在2018年下半年开始满负荷生产）液化天然气项目推动了出口收入的增加。

报告指出，澳大利亚的液化天然气产能扩张即将结束。在澳大利亚的液化天然气投资浪潮中，有超过2000亿美元投资于7个新的液化天然气项目，这些项目在2009-2012年间投入使用。

这些项目的增加使澳大利亚2019年的液化天然气出口收入达到490亿美元，出口量达到7700万吨，使澳大利亚成为2019年全球最大的液化天然气出口国。

王磊 摘译自 世界天然气

原文如下：

Australian LNG export value to drop with lower oil prices

The value of Australia’s LNG exports is forecast to decline to $49 billion in 2019–20 and fall back further to $44 billion in 2020–21, in real terms, driven by declining oil-linked contract prices.

Australia’s LNG export earnings are projected to remain in the $44 to $47 billion range, in real terms, over the remainder of the outlook period to 2024–25, Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist said in its Resources and Energy Quarterly report.

The impacts of declining gas production from the North West Shelf and Darwin projects are expected to be offset by a modest uptick in oil-linked contract prices between 2021 and 2023, and the ramp-up of the Pluto expansion in the final year of the outlook period.

Australia exported $51 billion of LNG in 2018–19 in real terms, up from $32 billion in 2017–18. Higher export earnings were driven by a recovery in oil prices relative to 2017–18, and growing export volumes, particularly from the Ichthys and Wheatstone (which began producing at full capacity in the second half of 2018) LNG projects.

The report notes that the country’s LNG capacity expansion is coming to an end. The wave of LNG investment in Australia saw over $200 billion invested in seven new LNG projects, which were commissioned between 2009 and 2012.

The ramp-up of these projects has seen Australia’s LNG export earnings reach $49 billion in 2019, and export volumes reach 77 million tonnes, making Australia the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2019.