全球原油供应过剩情况不容乐观

据3月23日Rigzone报道，由于欧佩克和德克萨斯州之间减产协议未能达成，而美国的救助计划也被迫延迟，油价跌至2003年以来最低水平。

伦敦原油期货价格下跌约4%，至每桶26美元左右，西德克萨斯中质原油期货4月份合约价格在于上周五到期后上涨。德州铁路委员会专员莱恩?西顿(Ryan Sitton)罕见地受邀参加了上周五召开的欧佩克 6月会议，但仅数小时后，他限制产量的呼吁就遭到监管机构和钻探商的拒绝，达成协议的希望开始破灭。

克里姆林宫分析人士称，在石油需求前景迅速变得暗淡的情况下，边缘政策正在进行。一些交易员认为，原油需求每天暴跌高达1000万至2000万桶。

Axicorp Ltd.首席亚洲市场策略师Stephen Innes称，如果欧佩克和德州不能就减产达成协议，油价可能很快降至10-15美元/桶。任何有能力储存石油的交易商可能都在观望期货溢价。

截至7点37分，伦敦洲际交易所5月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌3.9%，至每桶25.93美元。此前曾跌至24.68美元/桶。这低于周三24.88美元/桶的收盘价，后者是2003年5月12日以来的最低水平。

纽约商品交易所5月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨1%，至每桶22.66美元，此前曾跌至20.80美元/桶的低点。上周，4月份合约暴跌29%，是1991年以来的最大跌幅。

前所未有的供求冲击反映在一系列石油市场指标上。布伦特原油6个月期货溢价超过8美元/桶，为2009年以来最大溢价，市场结构显示供应过剩。一项衡量WTI波动性的指标上周五飙升24%，至200多个指数点，创下历史最高水平。与此同时，在截至3月17日的一周内，对冲基金对美国基准指数的押注下跌了26%，不过在下一轮投机性冲击之前，这可能是空头回补。

即使原油需求在今年年中恢复到正常水平，2020年仍将出现自上世纪60年代中期开始有可靠记录以来的最大消费下降。到目前为止，最大的年度减产记录出现在1980年，当时全球经济受到第二次石油危机的严重影响，每日减产260万桶。

邹勤 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Down as Hopes for TOPEC Production Truce Fade

Oil dropped toward the lowest level since 2003 as prospects for a deal between OPEC and Texas to limit production appeared to fade, while a U.S. coronavirus rescue package ran into political delays.

Futures in London fell around 4% to near $26 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose after the April contract expired Friday. Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton landed a rare invitation to attend OPEC’s June meeting on Friday, but just hours later hopes for an agreement began to unravel as his call to curb output was criticized by regulators and drillers.

The chance that either Saudi Arabia or Russia will back down from their price war seems remote, with President Vladimir Putin unlikely to submit to what he sees as the kingdom’s oil blackmail, according to Kremlin watchers. The brinkmanship is taking place against a rapidly darkening demand outlook with more nations going into lockdown to tackle the virus. Some traders see crude demand collapsing by as much as 10 to 20 million barrels a day.

“Oil could head to $10 to $15 a barrel very quickly” if OPEC and Texas can’t reach an agreement on cutting production, said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at Axicorp Ltd. “Any traders with the capacity to store oil are probably putting their hands up, looking at the contango.”

Brent for May settlement lost 3.9% to $25.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange as of 7:37 a.m. in London after dropping to as low as $24.68 earlier. That’s less than its close of $24.88 a barrel on Wednesday, which was the lowest since May 12, 2003.

WTI for May delivery rose 1% to $22.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling to as low as $20.80 earlier. The April contract plummeted 29% last week, the most since 1991.

The unprecedented demand and supply shock was reflected in a range of oil-market indicators. Brent’s six-month timespread was more than $8 a barrel in contango, the widest since 2009, a market structure indicating over-supply. A gauge of WTI volatility surged 24% on Friday to more than 200 index points, the highest level on record. Meanwhile, hedge fund wagers against the U.S. benchmark dropped 26% in the week ended March 17, although that was likely short-covering before the next round of speculative attacks.

Even if crude demand recovers to normal levels by the middle of the year, 2020 is still on course to suffer the biggest decline in consumption since reliable records started in the mid-1960s. Until now, the biggest annual contraction was recorded in 1980, when it tumbled by 2.6 million barrels a day as the global economy reeled under the impact of the second oil crisis.