北海油气行业尚未失去“一切”

据能源之声3月23日消息，一位分析师表示，至少在短期内，北海油气行业能够在当前原油价格风暴的“未知水域”中生存下来。

来自能源研究咨询公司伍德麦肯锡的北海上游业务首席分析师Neivan Boroujerdi称，上一轮经济低迷时期实现的成本削减意味着，当前油价为每桶25美元时，94%的石油生产是盈利的。

但Boroujerdi警告称，随着企业已开始缩减资本支出预算，“搁浅资产的威胁是切实存在的”。

伍德麦肯锡估计，今年大多数新项目的最终投资决策将被取消，而未来五年内，几乎三分之二的开发支出将被取消。

英国石油行业的年度投资最早可能在2024年就跌至8.6亿英镑(10亿美元)以下，这有望使接近60亿桶的可采资源留在地下。

伍德麦肯锡认为，已经获得批准的快速周转项目将继续推进，而“精选的少数”项目仍有可能获得“绿灯”，这给人们带来了希望。

Boroujerdi表示，如果价格回升或进一步削减成本能够实现，大约30亿的资源将很快恢复生产。

然而，油田服务行业不太可能进一步降低成本，因此勘探和生产企业将需要重新审视其开发计划，以节省大量资金。

他表示，对生产商而言，“最快的胜利”将是削减运营支出。

Boroujerdi还预计，该行业的独立勘探和生产公司将在财务上陷入困境，尤其是如果银行希望减少其投资组合的碳足迹。

他还补充称，私募股权公司将发现很难退出其在北海的投资组合，这使得新一轮的投资浪潮难以想象。

裘寅 编译自 能源之声

原文如下：

All is not lost for the North Sea, yet

The North Sea oil and gas industry can survive the “unchartered waters” of the current crude price storm, at least in the short-term, an analyst has said.

Cost cuts achieved during the last downturn mean 94% of current production is profitable with prices at $25 per barrel, said Neivan Boroujerdi, of energy research consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

But with companies already moving to shrink capital expenditure budgets, the “threat of stranded assets is real”, warned Mr Boroujerdi, principal North Sea upstream analyst.

Most final investment decisions (FIDs) on new projects will be taken off the table this year, while almost two-thirds of development spend could be wiped out over the next five years, Woodmac estimated.

Annual investment in the UK sector could fall below ￡860 million ($1 billion) as early as 2024, raising the prospect of nearly 6 billion barrels of viable resources being left in the ground.

Offering hope, Woodmac thinks quick-turnaround tieback projects which have already been sanctioned will continue to progress, while a “select handful” pre-FID developments might still get the “green light”.

Mr Boroujerdi said about 3 billion of resources could quickly become viable again if prices recover or further cost reductions can be achieved.

However, the oilfield service sector is unlikely to be able to lower its costs any further, so exploration and production firms will need to revisit their development plans to make big savings.

He said the “quickest win” for producers would be to reduce operational expenditure.

Mr Boroujerdi also expects the sector’s independent E&P firms to struggle financially, especially if banks look to reduce the carbon footprints of their portfolios.

He added that private-equity firms would find it difficult to exit their North Sea portfolio companies, which makes a new wave of investment difficult to imagine.