美国仅5家页岩公司能保持31美元/桶的盈利

据今日油价网站3月10日消息 雷斯塔能源称，以目前的油价计算，美国钻探的大多数页岩油井都将无利可图。据彭博社报道，这家挪威咨询公司表示，对100多家公司来说，钻探新井将面临亏损。

只有埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、西方石油和Crownquest五家页岩钻探公司钻探新井可以保持31美元/桶的WTI利润。

问题在于页岩油井的性质：虽然启动生产和扩大生产的速度很快，但也很快就会耗尽石油，因此钻井商需要继续钻探新油井以维持生产，这也是大多数美国页岩公司多年来一直在做的事情。不过，彭博社指出，这已经影响了投资者的回报，现在也影响了支出计划。

页岩油数据公司Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners的Tom Loughrey告诉彭博社：“公司不应该为了将生产设施保持在不可持续的水平而进一步投资。”

据雷斯塔称，对于已钻井但尚未完工的油井，情况更为乐观一些。该咨询公司昨日表示，美国页岩地区高达80%的页岩气开采企业的盈亏平衡价格低于每桶25美元。然而，这已经危险地接近目前的价格。

雷斯塔页岩研究主管Artem Abramov在新闻稿中表示：“如果在这场供应战中没有人会袖手旁观，那么为了适当地减少产量并使供需恢复平衡，价格可能不得不降到这么低。”

“这可能是石油行业所面临的最大冲击之一，因为控制冠状病毒的措施将加剧生产商争夺市场份额的举动。而欧佩克也明确表示，不会在2020年第二季度采取有力措施。”

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Only 5 Shale Drillers Are Still Profitable At $31 Oil

Most shale oil wells drilled in the United States are unprofitable at current oil prices, Rystad Energy has warned. The Norwegian consultancy said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that drilling new wells would be loss-making for more than 100 companies.

Just five shale drillers—Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Crownquest—can drill new wells at a profit at $31 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate.

The problem is the nature of shale oil wells: while quick to start production and expand it, they are also quick to run out of oil, so drillers need to keep drilling new ones to maintain production, which is what U.S. shale patch players have been doing for years. However, this has affected investor returns, Bloomberg notes, and now it is affecting spending plans.

“Companies should not be burning capital to be keeping the production base at an unsustainable level,” Tom Loughrey from shale oil data company Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg. “This is swing production -- and that means you’re going to have to swing down.”

The situation is more positive for drilled but uncompleted wells, according to Rystad. The consultancy said yesterday that as much as 80 percent of DUCs in the U.S. shale patch have a breakeven price of less than $25 per barrel of WTI. Yet this is dangerously close to current prices.

If nobody blinks in this supply war, prices may have to go this low in order to properly reduce production and get supply-demand back in balance,” Rystad’s head of shale research, Artem Abramov, said in the news release.

“This could turn out to be one of the greatest shocks ever faced by the oil industry, as coronavirus containment measures will add to the headache of producers fighting for market share. And OPEC has clearly stated that it won’t be coming to the rescue in the second quarter of 2020,” he also said.