EIA：2050年美国生物燃料产量将缓慢增加

据3月9日Hydrocarbon processing报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)《2020年度能源展望》预测，到2050年，受经济和政策因素的推动，美国生物燃料产量在2050年之前缓慢增长。参考案例反映，2050年的生物燃料产量将比2019年高出18%。然而，在全球原油价格上涨的情况下，燃料乙醇和生物柴油等生物燃料越来越多地被用作石油产品的替代品，如果是这样的话，到2050年生物燃料产量将增长55%。

美国乙醇出口的增加抵消了国内乙醇混合汽油消费量预计的下降。从2019年到预测期结束，生物柴油和其他生物燃料的产量分别增加了3万桶/天和8万桶/天。虽然没有包括在AEO2020的预测中，但在2019年12月更新的生物柴油混合燃料的税收抵免，预计将增加国内生产和生物柴油的净进口。

生物燃料消费的增长是由美国运输部门预计的液体燃料消费下降、油价上涨和可再生燃料标准(RFS)等法规支撑的。在AEO2020的参考案例中，生物燃料在国内汽油、馏分油和航空燃料市场中所占的份额相对较小，但却在不断增长。混合在汽油、柴油和航空燃料中的生物燃料的比例预计将从2019年的7.3%上升到2040年9.0%的高位，然后在2050年略微下降。

AEO2020高油价案例假设外国对美国生产的生物燃料的需求高于预期。运输燃料价格的上涨使生物燃料在价格上比石油燃料更有竞争力。EIA预测，美国的生物燃料消费和生物燃料消费份额的增长速度将远远高于参考案例。在这种情况下，到2050年，国内生物燃料的消耗量将增加到162万桶/天。

在AEO2020低油价案例中，国内生物燃料消费与参考案例相似。EIA预测，低油价将导致国内生物柴油(生物柴油和可再生柴油)消费的减少。由于汽油价格较低，国内生产的燃料乙醇被更多地混合到车用汽油中，因此生物燃料的总消耗量略有增加。当石油产品价格低、生物燃料在经济上缺乏竞争力时，诸如RFS和加州的低碳燃料标准等法规支持了对生物燃料的需求。

邹勤 摘译自 Hydrocarbon processing

原文如下：

U.S. EIA projects U.S. biofuel production to slowly increase through 2050

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) projects that U.S. biofuel production will slowly grow through 2050, primarily driven by economic and policy factors. In the Reference case, which reflects current laws and regulations, biofuels production in 2050 is 18% higher than 2019 levels. However, in a side case with higher global crude oil prices, biofuels such as fuel ethanol and biodiesel are increasingly consumed as substitutes for petroleum products, resulting in 55% growth in biofuels production in 2050 in that case.

The projected decline in domestic ethanol-blended gasoline consumption is offset by increasing U.S. ethanol exports. From 2019 to the end of the projection period, domestic production of biodiesel and other biofuels increases by 30,000 barrels/day (b/d) and 80,000 b/d, respectively. Although not included in the AEO2020 projections, the biodiesel blender’s tax credit, renewed in December 2019, is expected to increase domestic production and net imports of biomass-based diesel.

Biofuels consumption growth is supported by a projected decline in consumption of liquid fuels by the U.S. transportation sector, rising oil prices, and regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In the AEO2020 Reference case, biofuels represent a relatively small but growing share of the domestic gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel market. The percentage of biofuels blended into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is expected to increase from 7.3% in 2019 to a high of 9.0% in 2040 before slightly declining through 2050.

The AEO2020 High Oil Price case assumes greater levels of foreign demand for U.S.-produced biofuels than in the Reference case. Higher prices for transportation fuels make biofuels more price competitive with petroleum-based fuels. EIA projects both U.S. biofuels consumption and the share of biofuels consumption to rise at a substantially higher rate than in the Reference case. In this scenario, domestic biofuels consumption increases to 1.62 million b/d, or a 13.5% biofuels share, in 2050.

In the AEO2020 Low Oil Price case, domestic biofuel consumption remains similar to the Reference case. EIA projects low oil prices contribute to a decrease in domestic consumption of biomass-based diesel (biodiesel and renewable diesel). Total biofuel consumption increases slightly as low gasoline prices result in greater amounts of domestically produced fuel ethanol to be blended into motor gasoline. Demand for biofuels is supported by regulations such as the RFS and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard when prices of petroleum products are low and biofuels are less economically competitive.